Serpent
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.87
106 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $67.15 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.43%
136 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
55.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 136 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.88103 coins$597853 coins8.31x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.88103 coins$597853 coins8.31x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exoticQueen$73.87106 coins$42.5060.72 coins0.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.87 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $71.69 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.88 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.9%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 2.0%gold 1.0%exotic 90.0%best hit $597 (8.31x)