Serpent Nest
A case on CSGORoll (rifles, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.44
23.49 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $14.95 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.17%
4,440 openings, odds method
Variance
2098.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4,440 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,440 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.4423.49 coins$1,8202,600 coins110.7x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertJarza$16.4423.49 coins$1,8202,600 coins110.7x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert🔸Regular🔸$16.5523.64 coins$1,7922,560 coins108.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $16.44 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.44 | 90.89% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.50 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.55 | 90.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 0.3%classified 0.1%extraordinary 0.4%mil spec 6.2%restricted 3.0%exotic 30.0%uncommon 15.0%Rare 15.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $2,076 (125.4x)