Seven Seas

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$49.75
71.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $45.23 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.82%
761 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
47 openings · below min
7 days
90.15%±9.95659 openings
30 days
87.82%±9.26761 openings
since tracking started
87.82%±9.26761 openings
40.0%77.8%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4777.75%±37.3—odds
7d65990.15%±9.95−0.1σodds
30d76187.82%±9.26−0.7σodds
All76187.82%±9.26−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 761 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 5,000$799 1,142 coins0.4%00.2—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 2,500$435 622 coins0.4%00.3—
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 200$424 606 coins4.7%63.81.58×
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 400$385 550 coins2.1%11.90.53×
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 167$292 417 coins3.9%24.60.44×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$291 415 coins6.4%87.61.05×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$186 266 coins20.6%2838.10.74×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 40$116 166 coins6.4%2419.01.26×
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 71$91.00 130 coins2.8%1010.70.94×
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 50$88.90 127 coins3.9%1315.20.85×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 14$72.80 104 coins11.3%6253.31.16×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 14$65.46 93.51 coins10.1%4853.30.90×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 13$52.74 75.35 coins9.3%7460.91.22×
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 25$44.56 63.65 coins3.9%2530.40.82×
AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 11$28.27 40.38 coins5.6%6768.50.98×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted14.0%$12.87 18.38 coins4.0%100106.50.94×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified17.0%$5.45 7.78 coins2.0%143129.41.11×
MAG-7 | Hard Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec20.7%$4.52 6.46 coins2.1%150157.50.95×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$49.7571.07 coins$12.8718.38 coins0.26x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified$49.7571.07 coins$52.7475.35 coins1.06x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.7571.07 coins$5.457.78 coins0.11x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedwSe$49.7571.07 coins$5.457.78 coins0.11x
MAG-7 | Hard Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specwSe$49.7571.07 coins$4.526.46 coins0.09x
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$49.7571.07 coins$12.8718.38 coins0.26x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.7571.07 coins$5.457.78 coins0.11x
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$49.7571.07 coins$12.8718.38 coins0.26x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$49.7590.91%18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$49.9190.91%18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$49.4190.91%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.7%restricted 14.3%classified 40.4%industrial 7.0%mil spec 29.7%best hit —