Sex Haver

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.38

43.4 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $27.62 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.71%

5,805 openings, odds method

Variance

142.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 32

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.79%±117.41397 openings

7 days

77.38%±34.404,567 openings

30 days

81.71%±30.485,805 openings

since tracking started

81.71%±30.485,805 openings

-0.5%106.8%214.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	397	95.79%±117.4	+0.1σ	odds
7d	4,567	77.38%±34.4	−0.8σ	odds
30d	5,805	81.71%±30.5	−0.6σ	odds
All	5,805	81.71%±30.5	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,805 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$98K 140,000 coins	3.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 25,000	$26.3K 37,500 coins	3.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,114 1,591 coins	2.0%	3	2.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$856 1,223 coins	15.5%	32	29.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$477 682 coins	13.8%	43	46.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$336 480 coins	9.7%	36	46.4	0.78×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$211 302 coins	7.7%	56	58.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$202 288 coins	7.3%	46	58.1	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$134 192 coins	9.0%	121	107.1	1.13×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$82.60 118 coins	3.0%	56	58.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$72.80 104 coins	5.3%	119	116.1	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$66.61 95.16 coins	4.8%	108	116.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$59.09 84.41 coins	6.4%	173	174.2	0.99×
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$49.41 70.59 coins	3.6%	111	116.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 25	$29.78 42.55 coins	4.3%	226	232.2	0.97×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · common	40.0%	$0.10 0.14 coins	0.1%	2,284	2322.0	0.98×
AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · common	40.0%	$0.08 0.11 coins	0.1%	2,391	2322.0	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$30.7543.93 coins$1,1491,642 coins37.38x5d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$30.3843.4 coins$1,1141,591 coins36.66x1h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$30.3843.4 coins$1,1141,591 coins36.66x10h

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.7543.93 coins$8751,250 coins28.45x3d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.7543.93 coins$8751,250 coins28.45x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertFlashKing$30.7543.93 coins$8751,250 coins28.45x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.7543.93 coins$8751,250 coins28.45x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · common$30.3843.4 coins$0.100.14 coins0.00x8m

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · commonAbeKongen$30.3843.4 coins$0.100.14 coins0.00x8m

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$30.3843.4 coins$59.0984.41 coins1.94x8m

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedK1ng$30.3843.4 coins$82.60118 coins2.72x8m

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · common$30.3843.4 coins$0.080.11 coins0.00x59m

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · commonRiggson$30.3843.4 coins$0.080.11 coins0.00x59m

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · common$30.3843.4 coins$0.100.14 coins0.00x59m

AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · common$30.3843.4 coins$0.080.11 coins0.00x59m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.3843.4 coins$202288 coins6.64x59m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$30.38	90.92%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$30.38	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$30.46	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$30.75	90.90%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%classified 7.9%covert 4.1%violet 2.0%restricted 2.0%Ancient 4.0%common 80.0%best hit $1,149 (37.38x)