Shade
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.08
70.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $44.62 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.25%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 17.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlLars 🐔$50.4372.04 coins$638912 coins12.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$49.0870.11 coins$47.3167.59 coins0.96x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedm3$49.0870.11 coins$20.6929.55 coins0.42x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedVeckans$49.0870.11 coins$11.9217.03 coins0.24x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$49.0870.11 coins$20.6929.55 coins0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $49.08 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $50.39 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.43 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%covert 13.5%extraordinary 2.5%industrial 20.0%classified 12.0%violet 15.0%restricted 36.5%best hit $638 (12.66x)