Shaka Bra
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$140.64
201 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $127.85 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.46%
129 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert戏小阳$141201 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$141201 coins$167239 coins1.19x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertPekkatron$141201 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 57.4%extraordinary 8.3%legendary 0.3%rare 1.5%classified 6.0%remarkable 26.6%best hit $704 (5.00x)