Shank

A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.54

108 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $68.68 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.61%

70 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

48 openings · below min

30 days

70 openings · below min

since tracking started

70 openings · below min

70.5%100.5%130.5%

Small sample. 70 openings and 12.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	48	100.69%±29.4	—	odds
30d	70	97.61%±24.3	—	odds
All	70	97.61%±24.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$1,514 2,163 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$799 1,141 coins	1.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$443 633 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 80	$363 519 coins	6.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 135	$316 452 coins	3.4%	1	0.5	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$286 409 coins	6.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 40	$215 307 coins	7.8%	2	1.8	1.14×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$195 278 coins	8.5%	2	2.1	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$140 200 coins	8.2%	5	2.8	1.79×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$123 176 coins	9.0%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 17	$85.40 122 coins	7.5%	3	4.2	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$65.32 93.31 coins	14.3%	10	10.5	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$45.38 64.83 coins	7.9%	11	8.4	1.31×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified	18.0%	$45.21 64.58 coins	11.8%	11	12.6	0.87×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.0%	$17.71 25.3 coins	3.1%	7	8.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	18.5%	$6.38 9.11 coins	1.7%	14	12.9	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertViggerMcNieger$76.59109 coins$8241,177 coins10.76x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$75.54108 coins$6.389.11 coins0.08x1d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert$75.54108 coins$65.3293.31 coins0.86x1d

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$75.54108 coins$17.7125.3 coins0.23x1d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$75.54108 coins$6.389.11 coins0.08x2d

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTaylor Swift Fan$75.54108 coins$45.2164.58 coins0.60x2d

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$75.54108 coins$17.7125.3 coins0.23x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$75.54108 coins$140200 coins1.85x2d

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified$75.54108 coins$45.2164.58 coins0.60x2d

★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert$75.54108 coins$195278 coins2.58x2d

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covertRidwan$76.59109 coins$65.6893.83 coins0.86x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$75.54	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$76.03	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$76.59	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.5%classified 42.0%restricted 18.5%best hit $824 (10.76x)