Shapeshifter
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.52
32.17 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $20.47 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.78%
1,099 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,103 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$22.5232.17 coins$1.131.61 coins0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $22.52 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.51 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.43 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $22.42 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $22.42 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $22.39 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.39 | 90.92% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 23.1%restricted 3.0%industrial 0.1%classified 30.0%consumer 10.8%mil spec 33.0%best hit —