Shark Tank

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%, awp, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.08

21.54 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $13.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.66%

8,401 openings, odds method

Variance

4.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.66%±13.46863 openings

7 days

88.70%±4.697,110 openings

30 days

88.66%±4.318,401 openings

since tracking started

88.66%±4.318,401 openings

77.5%91.8%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	863	91.66%±13.5	+0.1σ	odds
7d	7,110	88.70%±4.69	−0.9σ	odds
30d	8,401	88.66%±4.31	−1.0σ	odds
All	8,401	88.66%±4.31	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,453 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200,000	$1,775 2,535 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,241 1,773 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$551 787 coins	0.8%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$446 637 coins	1.3%	1	3.4	0.30×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$315 450 coins	2.3%	7	8.5	0.83×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 143	$179 256 coins	9.2%	71	59.2	1.20×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$116 166 coins	8.5%	79	84.5	0.93×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$68.93 98.47 coins	10.1%	161	169.1	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$67.53 96.47 coins	12.3%	207	211.3	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$62.27 88.95 coins	13.6%	249	253.6	0.98×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 30	$52.51 75.02 coins	12.7%	261	279.7	0.93×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 26	$36.55 52.21 coins	10.2%	309	323.7	0.95×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$11.91 17.02 coins	3.9%	420	380.4	1.10×
Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 11	$7.69 10.98 coins	5.0%	755	760.8	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$4.84 6.91 coins	3.5%	834	845.3	0.99×
Sticker \| Purple Jaggyfishsticker · high	20.0%	$1.57 2.24 coins	2.3%	1,763	1690.6	1.04×
Sticker \| Pink Jaggyfishsticker · high	20.0%	$1.44 2.06 coins	2.1%	1,640	1690.6	0.97×
Sticker \| Black Jaggyfishsticker · high	20.0%	$1.41 2.01 coins	2.1%	1,695	1690.6	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$15.0821.54 coins$567810 coins37.60x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertUser#181$15.0821.54 coins$36.5552.21 coins2.42x57s

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertUser#181$15.0821.54 coins$36.5552.21 coins2.42x1m

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$15.0821.54 coins$11.9117.02 coins0.79x1m

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedUser#181$15.0821.54 coins$62.2788.95 coins4.13x1m

Sticker | Purple Jaggyfishsticker · high$15.0821.54 coins$1.572.24 coins0.10x1m

Sticker | Purple Jaggyfishsticker · highEminescu$15.0821.54 coins$1.572.24 coins0.10x1m

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$15.0821.54 coins$62.2788.95 coins4.13x1m

Sticker | Black Jaggyfishsticker · highRusty Cake$15.0821.54 coins$1.412.01 coins0.09x1m

Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$15.0821.54 coins$7.6910.98 coins0.51x1m

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$15.0821.54 coins$52.5175.02 coins3.48x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.08	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.13	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.08	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.5%classified 0.0%restricted 9.5%exotic 9.0%mil spec 10.0%high 60.0%best hit $567 (37.60x)