Sharpened
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.28
54.69 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $34.80 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.97%
1,414 openings, odds method
Variance
13.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 43
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,414 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black PearljK^$38.2854.69 coins$1,8832,690 coins49.19x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$38.2854.69 coins$1,5442,206 coins40.34x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$38.6555.22 coins$1,5092,156 coins39.04x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$38.6555.22 coins$1,4612,087 coins37.79x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldRobond$38.6555.22 coins$1,2481,783 coins32.29x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$38.2854.69 coins$1,1941,706 coins31.19x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$38.6555.22 coins$1,1421,632 coins29.55x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$38.2854.69 coins$1,1081,583 coins28.94x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$38.2854.69 coins$1,0811,544 coins28.23x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$38.6555.22 coins$1,0771,538 coins27.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert$38.2854.69 coins$54.3077.57 coins1.42x
Charm | Lil' Sandycharm · uncommonAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$38.2854.69 coins$0.430.62 coins0.01x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$38.2854.69 coins$1,5442,206 coins40.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $38.28 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.29 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.30 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.65 | 90.90% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.3%gold 1.5%epic 0.3%uncommon 80.0%best hit $1,883 (49.19x)