Shattered

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$70.71

101 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $64.29 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.89%

564 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

23 openings · below min

7 days

84.99%±10.43470 openings

30 days

84.89%±9.53564 openings

since tracking started

84.89%±9.53564 openings

54.0%101.5%149.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	23	101.38%±46.8	—	odds
7d	470	84.99%±10.4	−1.1σ	odds
30d	564	84.89%±9.53	−1.2σ	odds
All	564	84.89%±9.53	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$2,212 3,160 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,713 2,447 coins	2.7%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,035 1,478 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$606 865 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$571 815 coins	1.8%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 333	$274 391 coins	1.3%	1	1.7	0.59×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$192 274 coins	17.9%	36	34.0	1.06×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$149 213 coins	9.3%	13	22.6	0.57×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$142 203 coins	2.2%	6	5.7	1.06×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$135 193 coins	6.3%	17	17.0	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$91.00 130 coins	11.3%	43	45.3	0.95×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$84.70 121 coins	13.2%	57	56.6	1.01×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$53.17 75.95 coins	9.9%	68	67.9	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	27.0%	$49.41 70.59 coins	20.8%	158	152.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	28.4%	$6.38 9.11 coins	2.8%	166	160.6	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$70.41101 coins$581830 coins8.25x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$70.71101 coins$53.1775.95 coins0.75x37m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$70.71101 coins$6.389.11 coins0.09x1h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCall me Johnny$70.71101 coins$6.389.11 coins0.09x1h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$70.71101 coins$49.4170.59 coins0.70x1h

AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$70.71101 coins$84.70121 coins1.20x1h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$70.71101 coins$6.389.11 coins0.09x1h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedALEXANDRU$70.71101 coins$91.00130 coins1.29x2h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$70.71101 coins$49.4170.59 coins0.70x2h

MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$70.71101 coins$192274 coins2.71x2h

★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertᗪᗩᑎY G$70.71101 coins$135193 coins1.91x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$70.71	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$70.77	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$70.41	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.6%mil spec 33.0%restricted 36.4%classified 10.0%best hit $581 (8.25x)