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Shattered Web

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4.09
5.84 coins
Advertised RTP
90.97%
EV $3.72 from 81 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.58%
7,954 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
100.89%±16.95704 openings
7 days
92.42%±5.427,091 openings
30 days
91.58%±5.127,954 openings
since tracking started
91.58%±5.127,954 openings
83.5%101.0%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h704100.89%±16.9+1.2σodds
7d7,09192.42%±5.42+0.5σodds
30d7,95491.58%±5.12+0.3σodds
All7,95491.58%±5.12+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values81 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,954 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 16,667$295 421 coins0.5%10.5—
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,250$111 159 coins2.4%66.40.94×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 833$109 156 coins3.5%109.51.05×
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 2,500$104 149 coins1.1%53.21.57×
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$93.10 133 coins2.5%48.00.50×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$86.10 123 coins2.3%128.01.51×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 833$81.90 117 coins2.6%69.50.63×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 769$68.93 98.47 coins2.4%1310.31.26×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 769$53.17 75.95 coins1.9%1310.31.26×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 667$44.31 63.3 coins1.8%1011.90.84×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 769$42.24 60.34 coins1.5%910.30.87×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 769$41.28 58.97 coins1.4%1010.30.97×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$34.46 49.23 coins1.4%911.90.75×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 333$33.52 47.88 coins2.7%2123.90.88×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 222$33.52 47.88 coins4.1%3835.81.06×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 667$28.72 41.03 coins1.2%1511.91.26×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 333$16.82 24.03 coins1.4%2623.91.09×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 222$16.49 23.55 coins2.0%3735.81.03×
P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 222$15.07 21.53 coins1.8%3435.80.95×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 667$14.37 20.53 coins0.6%1211.91.01×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 667$13.98 19.97 coins0.6%611.90.50×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 667$13.97 19.96 coins0.6%1611.91.34×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 667$13.66 19.51 coins0.6%1511.91.26×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 222$13.21 18.87 coins1.6%3335.80.92×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 74$11.24 16.05 coins4.1%109107.41.02×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 667$9.90 14.14 coins0.4%1011.90.84×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$9.70 13.86 coins4.3%136129.71.05×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 95$9.33 13.33 coins2.6%10283.51.22×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 168$8.04 11.48 coins1.3%4647.20.97×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 80$7.64 10.91 coins2.6%9199.40.92×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 74$7.64 10.91 coins2.8%94107.40.88×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 95$7.48 10.69 coins2.1%8683.51.03×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 74$6.03 8.62 coins2.2%89107.40.83×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 222$5.40 7.71 coins0.7%4335.81.20×
P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.95 5.64 coins1.7%132129.71.02×
M249 | Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$3.91 5.58 coins1.7%152129.71.17×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.91 5.58 coins1.7%131129.71.01×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.68 5.26 coins1.6%136129.71.05×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 74$3.65 5.22 coins1.3%90107.40.84×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.58 5.11 coins1.6%136129.71.05×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.51 5.02 coins1.5%150129.71.16×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 61$2.78 3.97 coins1.2%129129.70.99×
Nova | Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$2.50 3.57 coins1.1%147129.71.13×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$2.22 3.17 coins1.0%106129.70.82×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$2.20 3.14 coins1.0%140129.71.08×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$2.15 3.07 coins0.9%116129.70.89×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$2.07 2.96 coins0.9%99129.70.76×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.99 2.85 coins0.9%126129.70.97×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.96 2.8 coins0.9%133129.71.03×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.91 2.73 coins0.8%133129.71.03×
P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.66 2.37 coins0.7%144129.71.11×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.65 2.36 coins0.7%133129.71.03×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 61$1.59 2.27 coins0.7%152129.71.17×
M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.55 2.22 coins0.7%128129.70.99×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.54 2.2 coins0.7%130129.71.00×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.49 2.13 coins0.7%124129.70.96×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.48 2.12 coins0.7%141129.71.09×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.40 2 coins0.6%120129.70.93×
P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.39 1.98 coins0.6%124129.70.96×
P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.36 1.94 coins0.6%123129.70.95×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.31 1.87 coins0.6%116129.70.89×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.27 1.82 coins0.6%144129.71.11×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.23 1.76 coins0.5%130129.71.00×
Nova | Plume (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$1.21 1.73 coins0.5%118129.70.91×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 43$0.99 1.42 coins0.6%186186.91.00×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 52$0.87 1.24 coins0.5%143153.50.93×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.74 1.06 coins0.3%132129.71.02×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.73 1.04 coins0.3%128129.70.99×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 31$0.71 1.02 coins0.6%224259.30.86×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.71 1.01 coins0.6%249238.61.04×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.70 1 coins0.3%123129.70.95×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.69 0.98 coins0.3%115129.70.89×
Nova | Plume (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.59 0.85 coins0.3%128129.70.99×
Nova | Plume (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.59 0.84 coins0.3%144129.71.11×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.59 0.84 coins0.3%145129.71.12×
M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.52 0.75 coins0.2%113129.70.87×
M249 | Warbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 31$0.50 0.71 coins0.4%282259.31.09×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.49 0.7 coins0.2%120129.70.93×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 31$0.47 0.67 coins0.4%257259.30.99×
Nova | Plume (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 61$0.37 0.53 coins0.2%144129.71.11×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 31$0.36 0.51 coins0.3%271259.31.05×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covertSami$4.095.84 coins$284406 coins69.52x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$4.095.84 coins$34.4649.23 coins8.43x
Dual Berettas | Balance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$4.095.84 coins$0.871.24 coins0.21x
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specDab$4.095.84 coins$0.360.51 coins0.09x
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$4.095.84 coins$0.701 coins0.17x
R8 Revolver | Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$4.095.84 coins$0.741.06 coins0.18x
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.095.84 coins$7.4810.69 coins1.83x
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.095.84 coins$7.4810.69 coins1.83x
SCAR-20 | Torn (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$4.095.84 coins$0.470.67 coins0.11x
R8 Revolver | Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDab$4.095.84 coins$0.741.06 coins0.18x
Nova | Plume (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specsirwins.a.not$4.095.84 coins$0.370.53 coins0.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC$4.0990.97%81
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC$4.1090.85%81
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC$4.0990.96%81
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC$4.0990.96%81
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC$4.1090.89%81
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$4.1090.86%81
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$4.1090.98%81
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$4.0790.95%81
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$4.0990.91%81
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC$4.0990.96%81
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC$4.0990.89%81
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC$4.0990.95%81
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC$4.0990.97%81
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC$4.0990.89%81
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC$4.1090.90%81
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC$4.1090.96%81
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$4.1190.85%81
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.8%classified 5.5%restricted 30.6%mil spec 59.2%violet 1.4%#8847ff 1.6%best hit $284 (69.52x)