Shock
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.58
43.69 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $27.80 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.95%
476 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$30.5843.69 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialbabylaffytaffy$30.5843.69 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMedical Shit$30.5843.69 coins$29.1441.63 coins0.95x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $30.58 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.58 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.46 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $30.62 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.62 | 90.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 27.4%restricted 15.9%classified 0.7%rare 6.0%industrial 50.0%best hit —