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Shockwave

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$78.53
112 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $71.38 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.84%
1,656 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79 openings · below min
7 days
89.26%±14.54917 openings
30 days
86.84%±10.821,656 openings
since tracking started
86.84%±10.821,656 openings
42.0%92.3%142.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h7992.21%±49.6—odds
7d91789.26%±14.5−0.2σodds
30d1,65686.84%±10.8−0.7σodds
All1,65686.84%±10.8−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,656 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100,000$4,281 6,115 coins0.1%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20,000$2,230 3,185 coins0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 500$2,079 2,970 coins5.8%43.31.21×
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 2,000$1,724 2,463 coins1.2%10.8—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$762 1,088 coins5.3%98.31.09×
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 13$430 614 coins48.2%135132.51.02×
★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$406 580 coins11.4%2433.10.72×
★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$323 461 coins9.0%2733.10.82×
★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$295 421 coins4.1%916.60.54×
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 33$178 254 coins7.5%4349.70.87×
★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 31$159 227 coins7.2%5853.71.08×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer40.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%677662.41.02×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer40.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%669662.41.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$80.89116 coins$2,1073,010 coins26.05x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$80.89116 coins$2,1073,010 coins26.05x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$80.89116 coins$2,1073,010 coins26.05x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$80.89116 coins$2,1073,010 coins26.05x
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$80.89116 coins$1,7302,471 coins21.38x
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$80.89116 coins$1,7302,471 coins21.38x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$80.89116 coins$7971,138 coins9.85x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertROBOTAIM$80.89116 coins$7971,138 coins9.85x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$80.89116 coins$7971,138 coins9.85x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$80.89116 coins$7971,138 coins9.85x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.53112 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.53112 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$78.53112 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$78.53112 coins$178254 coins2.26x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.53112 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$78.53112 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$78.53112 coins$430614 coins5.47x
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$78.53112 coins$7621,088 coins9.70x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.53112 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.53112 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$78.5390.91%13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$80.8990.91%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.9%extraordinary 2.0%legendary 0.1%restricted 8.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,107 (26.05x)