Sidearms
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.01
7.15 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $4.55 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.46%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.05% – 90.87%, 12,576 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $5.01 | 90.95% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.01 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.00 | 90.97% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.00 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $4.92 | 90.93% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.91 | 90.87% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.90 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%classified 6.3%mil spec 21.6%industrial 20.1%restricted 5.0%consumer 8.0%blue 14.0%milspec 8.0%Uncommon 14.0%best hit —