Silenced
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$187.03
267 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $170.02 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.13%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$187267 coins$113161 coins0.60x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$187267 coins$18.9727.1 coins0.10x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertVuitton$187267 coins$113161 coins0.60x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$187267 coins$113161 coins0.60x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%classified 6.7%covert 37.0%restricted 7.0%industrial 20.0%mil spec 29.0%best hit $1,369 (7.32x)