Six Seven

A case on CSGORoll (pistols, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.29

21.84 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $13.90 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.07%

3,180 openings, odds method

Variance

5.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71.67%±25.58316 openings

7 days

89.35%±8.432,883 openings

30 days

89.07%±8.023,180 openings

since tracking started

89.07%±8.023,180 openings

45.5%72.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	316	71.67%±25.6	−1.5σ	odds
7d	2,883	89.35%±8.43	−0.4σ	odds
30d	3,180	89.07%±8.02	−0.5σ	odds
All	3,180	89.07%±8.02	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$465 664 coins	6.7%	4	6.4	0.63×
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$314 448 coins	6.8%	10	9.5	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$226 323 coins	4.1%	10	8.0	1.26×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$206 294 coins	7.4%	14	15.9	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$69.59 99.41 coins	5.0%	32	31.8	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$67.59 96.55 coins	7.3%	47	47.7	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$54.19 77.42 coins	6.8%	57	55.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$49.74 71.06 coins	8.9%	89	79.5	1.12×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$33.85 48.36 coins	12.2%	144	159.0	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$29.87 42.67 coins	12.9%	191	190.8	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$25.86 36.94 coins	5.6%	99	95.4	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$15.72 22.46 coins	9.0%	245	254.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$4.89 6.98 coins	3.5%	301	318.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.53 3.61 coins	2.7%	495	477.0	1.04×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	20.0%	$0.72 1.03 coins	1.0%	615	636.0	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	827	795.0	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777$15.2921.84 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$15.2921.84 coins$2.533.61 coins0.17x2h

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$15.2921.84 coins$0.721.03 coins0.05x2h

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrialJake$15.2921.84 coins$0.721.03 coins0.05x2h

Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted$15.2921.84 coins$15.7222.46 coins1.03x2h

Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777$15.2921.84 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777Miltsukkaaaw :3$15.2921.84 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$15.2921.84 coins$54.1977.42 coins3.54x3h

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted$15.2921.84 coins$29.8742.67 coins1.95x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$15.29	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.27	90.89%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.35	90.89%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.16	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 40.2%classified 0.8%covert 2.8%mil spec 4.5%industrial 26.8%#777777 25.0%best hit —