Sky High

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.45

22.07 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $14.05 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.92%

5,407 openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101.39%±24.10454 openings

7 days

92.56%±7.294,396 openings

30 days

93.92%±6.545,407 openings

since tracking started

93.92%±6.545,407 openings

76.5%101.3%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	454	101.39%±24.1	+0.9σ	odds
7d	4,396	92.56%±7.29	+0.5σ	odds
30d	5,407	93.92%±6.54	+0.9σ	odds
All	5,407	93.92%±6.54	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,421 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$5,688 8,125 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$563 804 coins	2.0%	6	2.7	2.21×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$493 704 coins	15.8%	24	24.4	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$385 550 coins	2.7%	6	5.4	1.11×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$95.20 136 coins	9.8%	96	78.6	1.22×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$59.89 85.56 coins	9.0%	112	113.8	0.98×
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$56.98 81.4 coins	12.2%	150	162.6	0.92×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$22.79 32.56 coins	6.5%	216	216.8	1.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$21.74 31.06 coins	12.2%	398	425.5	0.94×
MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$20.05 28.65 coins	8.6%	329	325.3	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$10.56 15.09 coins	6.0%	440	433.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$7.64 10.92 coins	4.4%	432	433.7	1.00×
M249 \| Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$3.91 5.58 coins	2.2%	409	433.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.94 4.2 coins	1.9%	550	487.9	1.13×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$2.79 3.98 coins	2.2%	569	596.3	0.95×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.16 3.09 coins	1.2%	454	433.7	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.07 2.95 coins	2.2%	783	813.1	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$2.06 2.94 coins	1.2%	447	433.7	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$14.9021.28 coins$573818 coins38.44x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$14.9021.29 coins$573818 coins38.42x5d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · raresuppEN$14.9021.29 coins$573818 coins38.42x5d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rarespeen.mp4$14.9021.29 coins$573818 coins38.42x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareEminescu$15.4522.07 coins$563804 coins36.43x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$15.4522.07 coins$2.062.94 coins0.13x25m

FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$15.4522.07 coins$56.9881.4 coins3.69x25m

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$10.5615.09 coins0.68x25m

MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$20.0528.65 coins1.30x25m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$15.4522.07 coins$22.7932.56 coins1.48x25m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJake$15.4522.07 coins$7.6410.92 coins0.49x25m

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$10.5615.09 coins0.68x31m

MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$20.0528.65 coins1.30x37m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.4522.07 coins$59.8985.56 coins3.88x43m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPOOF$15.4522.07 coins$7.6410.92 coins0.49x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$15.45	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.46	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.35	90.91%	18
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$14.90	90.93%	18
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$14.90	90.90%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.92	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.5%rare 0.1%classified 24.4%restricted 54.1%violet 4.0%mil spec 8.0%consumer 8.0%best hit $573 (38.44x)