Slapshot
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.44
49.2 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $31.31 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.09%
348 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
42.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $99.40 142 coins | 4.8% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.53× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $93.10 133 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $86.10 123 coins | 6.9% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $83.30 119 coins | 8.0% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 8.0% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.29× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 27.0% | $52.35 74.78 coins | 45.1% | 108 | 94.0 | 1.15× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $41.03 58.61 coins | 9.2% | 29 | 24.4 | 1.19× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $39.37 56.24 coins | 15.1% | 32 | 41.8 | 0.77× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 42.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 137 | 146.2 | 0.94× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $34.44 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.43 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.38 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.43 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 58.0%consumer 42.0%best hit —