Slasher

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$151.89

217 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $138.09 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.08%

129 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

84.80%±27.55116 openings

30 days

92.08%±26.13129 openings

since tracking started

92.08%±26.13129 openings

56.5%148.3%240.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	178.71%±60.4	—	odds
7d	116	84.80%±27.5	−0.4σ	odds
30d	129	92.08%±26.1	+0.1σ	odds
All	129	92.08%±26.1	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$5,548 7,925 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 400	$2,769 3,955 coins	5.0%	1	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 392	$1,514 2,163 coins	2.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,096 1,566 coins	2.0%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 100	$911 1,302 coins	6.6%	2	1.3	1.55×
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$848 1,212 coins	1.5%	1	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 67	$652 932 coins	7.1%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$620 886 coins	4.5%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 67	$559 799 coins	6.1%	2	1.9	1.03×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 67	$517 738 coins	5.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$472 674 coins	0.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 417	$445 636 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$435 622 coins	3.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$320 457 coins	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$218 312 coins	7.9%	7	6.5	1.09×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$178 254 coins	6.4%	8	6.5	1.24×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$167 239 coins	6.1%	4	6.5	0.62×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$142 203 coins	5.1%	3	6.5	0.47×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$125 178 coins	7.2%	10	10.3	0.97×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$123 176 coins	4.5%	9	6.5	1.40×
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$95.20 136 coins	3.4%	10	6.5	1.55×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$86.10 123 coins	3.1%	6	6.5	0.93×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	10.0%	$72.10 103 coins	5.2%	18	12.9	1.40×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$49.00 70 coins	1.8%	4	6.5	0.62×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$41.94 59.92 coins	1.5%	4	6.5	0.62×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$9.14 13.05 coins	0.6%	13	11.6	1.12×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$6.52 9.31 coins	0.2%	6	6.5	0.93×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$1.21 1.73 coins	0.0%	6	6.8	0.89×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.97 1.38 coins	0.1%	12	11.0	1.09×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Vnx6d$152217 coins$2,7693,955 coins18.23x22h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$152217 coins$9111,302 coins6.00x21h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epichellsten05$154220 coins$9111,302 coins5.91x4d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$154220 coins$9111,302 coins5.91x8d

★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert$152217 coins$8481,212 coins5.59x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$154220 coins$7041,006 coins4.57x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$154220 coins$621887 coins4.03x6d

★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert$152217 coins$559799 coins3.68x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedVnx6d$152217 coins$0.971.38 coins0.01x21h

MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$152217 coins$0.971.38 coins0.01x21h

★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert$152217 coins$218312 coins1.44x21h

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$152217 coins$9.1413.05 coins0.06x21h

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert$152217 coins$86.10123 coins0.57x21h

★ Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert$152217 coins$125178 coins0.82x21h

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertVnx6d$152217 coins$72.10103 coins0.47x21h

★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$152217 coins$167239 coins1.10x21h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$152217 coins$9111,302 coins6.00x21h

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrialVnx6d$152217 coins$142203 coins0.94x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$152	90.91%	29
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$152	90.91%	29
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$152	90.91%	29
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$154	90.91%	29
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$154	90.91%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 51.2%epic 1.0%industrial 14.0%restricted 18.5%classified 10.0%mil spec 5.3%best hit $2,769 (18.23x)