Sloth

A case on CSGORoll (partners, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$204.86

293 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $186.24 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.48%

369 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

107.39%±25.50325 openings

30 days

103.48%±23.93369 openings

since tracking started

103.48%±23.93369 openings

13.5%129.0%244.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	129.15%±114.9	—	odds
7d	325	107.39%±25.5	+1.3σ	odds
30d	369	103.48%±23.9	+1.0σ	odds
All	369	103.48%±23.9	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 369 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$6,573 9,390 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$6,542 9,345 coins	1.8%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 3,333	$6,335 9,050 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$5,719 8,170 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$4,288 6,125 coins	2.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 500	$3,311 4,730 coins	3.6%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$2,167 3,095 coins	5.8%	2	1.8	1.08×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$1,988 2,840 coins	3.2%	2	1.1	1.81×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$1,820 2,600 coins	19.5%	7	7.4	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 250	$1,467 2,096 coins	3.2%	1	1.5	0.68×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,369 1,955 coins	7.3%	4	3.7	1.08×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 133	$1,282 1,832 coins	5.2%	4	2.8	1.45×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$685 978 coins	11.0%	12	11.1	1.08×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 15	$517 738 coins	18.4%	26	24.5	1.06×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 25	$379 542 coins	8.1%	9	14.8	0.61×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 17	$190 272 coins	6.1%	23	22.1	1.04×
Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable	37.5%	$6.57 9.39 coins	1.3%	121	138.4	0.87×
Sticker \| Liquid Firesticker · high	37.5%	$5.56 7.94 coins	1.1%	155	138.4	1.12×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$209299 coins$6,7279,610 coins32.13x6d

Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$209299 coins$4,2886,125 coins20.48x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$205293 coins$3,3114,730 coins16.16x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$209299 coins$2,3423,345 coins11.18x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$205293 coins$2,1673,095 coins10.58x13h

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$209299 coins$2,0402,915 coins9.74x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$209299 coins$2,0402,915 coins9.74x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$209299 coins$1,7922,560 coins8.56x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$205293 coins$6.579.39 coins0.03x13h

Sticker | Liquid Firesticker · highkarma$205293 coins$5.567.94 coins0.03x13h

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$205293 coins$190272 coins0.93x13h

Sticker | Liquid Firesticker · high$205293 coins$5.567.94 coins0.03x13h

Sticker | Liquid Firesticker · highkarma$205293 coins$5.567.94 coins0.03x13h

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert$205293 coins$379542 coins1.85x13h

Sticker | Liquid Firesticker · high$205293 coins$5.567.94 coins0.03x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$205	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$205	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$209	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.1%legendary 6.7%epic 0.2%classified 1.0%remarkable 37.5%high 37.5%best hit $6,727 (32.13x)