Smooth Sailing
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$101.58
145 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $92.34 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.25%
194 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 194 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$101145 coins$576823 coins5.69x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2PaleThread$102145 coins$573819 coins5.64x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$102145 coins$85.40122 coins0.84x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covertJakymowsky$102145 coins$64.5892.25 coins0.64x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covertJakymowsky$102145 coins$64.5892.25 coins0.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.8%covert 53.5%rare 2.3%restricted 20.0%extraordinary 3.5%best hit $576 (5.69x)