Solar Flare

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$161.92

231 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $147.20 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.82%

114 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

91.85%±22.35102 openings

30 days

88.82%±21.14114 openings

since tracking started

88.82%±21.14114 openings

41.0%94.8%148.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	94.63%±53.1	—	odds
7d	102	91.85%±22.3	+0.1σ	odds
30d	114	88.82%±21.1	−0.2σ	odds
All	114	88.82%±21.1	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$5,684 8,120 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,500	$4,365 6,235 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 5,000	$3,136 4,480 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1,142 1,631 coins	7.8%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$1,051 1,502 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$1,035 1,478 coins	2.5%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 154	$793 1,133 coins	3.5%	2	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$532 760 coins	5.6%	4	1.8	2.26×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 77	$374 534 coins	3.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$251 359 coins	3.9%	2	2.6	0.76×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 15	$230 328 coins	10.3%	2	7.5	0.27×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	23.0%	$146 209 coins	22.9%	28	26.2	1.07×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$98.70 141 coins	3.0%	1	5.1	0.19×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	22.0%	$98.70 141 coins	14.8%	30	25.1	1.20×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$91.00 130 coins	3.7%	8	6.8	1.17×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	23.5%	$83.30 119 coins	13.3%	28	26.8	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$51.23 73.18 coins	2.4%	8	8.0	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$163233 coins$1,1341,620 coins6.95x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertLars$162231 coins$7931,133 coins4.90x19h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$162231 coins$7931,133 coins4.90x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertZangetsu$163233 coins$7931,133 coins4.86x3d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertlielfarag70$163233 coins$540771 coins3.31x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$163233 coins$540771 coins3.31x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$162231 coins$532760 coins3.29x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$162231 coins$146209 coins0.90x19h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$162231 coins$98.70141 coins0.61x19h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$162231 coins$83.30119 coins0.51x19h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertLars$162231 coins$7931,133 coins4.90x19h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$162231 coins$83.30119 coins0.51x21h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$162231 coins$98.70141 coins0.61x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$162	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$162	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$163	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%contraband 0.0%high 0.0%restricted 1.0%covert 63.1%mil spec 25.3%extraordinary 4.5%classified 6.0%best hit $1,134 (6.95x)