Sorcery

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$54.47

77.81 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $49.51 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.95%

649 openings, odds method

Variance

7.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68 openings · below min

7 days

96.04%±23.79504 openings

30 days

95.95%±20.98649 openings

since tracking started

95.95%±20.98649 openings

45.0%110.0%175.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	68	109.91%±64.4	—	odds
7d	504	96.04%±23.8	+0.4σ	odds
30d	649	95.95%±21.0	+0.5σ	odds
All	649	95.95%±21.0	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 649 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$3,047 4,353 coins	3.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$2,198 3,140 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 3,333	$2,100 3,000 coins	1.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,357 1,939 coins	2.7%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 333	$1,054 1,506 coins	6.4%	4	1.9	2.05×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 500	$887 1,267 coins	3.6%	2	1.3	1.54×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$856 1,223 coins	8.6%	3	3.2	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 125	$541 773 coins	8.7%	3	5.2	0.58×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50	$354 506 coins	14.3%	14	13.0	1.08×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 25	$135 193 coins	10.9%	29	26.0	1.12×
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$109 155 coins	15.3%	56	45.4	1.23×
Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	30.0%	$21.29 30.42 coins	12.9%	185	194.7	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$19.19 27.41 coins	9.7%	160	162.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	30.0%	$2.32 3.32 coins	1.4%	192	194.7	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlI AM THE PIRATE KING$54.4777.81 coins$1,3571,939 coins24.92x2d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$54.5677.94 coins$1,0541,506 coins19.32x5d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$54.5677.94 coins$1,0541,506 coins19.32x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$54.5677.94 coins$9061,294 coins16.60x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$54.4777.81 coins$8871,267 coins16.28x55m

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertJake$54.5677.94 coins$8751,250 coins16.04x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$54.5677.94 coins$8751,250 coins16.04x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBlair$54.4777.81 coins$8561,223 coins15.72x14h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$54.4777.81 coins$2.323.32 coins0.04x9m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalShiba inu$54.4777.81 coins$2.323.32 coins0.04x9m

Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.4777.81 coins$21.2930.42 coins0.39x9m

Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$54.4777.81 coins$19.1927.41 coins0.35x9m

Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.4777.81 coins$21.2930.42 coins0.39x9m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$54.4777.81 coins$2.323.32 coins0.04x14m

Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted$54.4777.81 coins$109155 coins1.99x14m

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$54.4777.81 coins$135193 coins2.48x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$54.47	90.90%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$54.34	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$54.56	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.0%extraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%restricted 37.0%mil spec 25.0%Mythical 30.0%best hit $1,357 (24.92x)