SOS
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.32
103 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.74 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.92%
1,686 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,686 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryGliderHax$72.05103 coins$2,9684,240 coins41.19x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$72.05103 coins$2,0402,915 coins28.32x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertUser#878$72.05103 coins$1,1161,594 coins15.49x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertGliderHax$72.05103 coins$1,1161,594 coins15.49x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.32 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.29 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.05 | 90.91% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 9.6%covert 9.5%classified 0.5%legendary 0.4%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,968 (41.19x)