Soundwave

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$119.85

171 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $108.95 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

125.43%

34 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

30 openings · below min

30 days

34 openings · below min

since tracking started

34 openings · below min

67.5%133.3%199.0%

Small sample. 34 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	30	137.28%±61.2	—	odds
30d	34	125.43%±57.5	—	odds
All	34	125.43%±57.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 20,000	$21K 30,000 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 20,000	$8,057 11,510 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$1,373 1,961 coins	1.3%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 33	$454 648 coins	12.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$295 421 coins	27.0%	4	3.4	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$197 281 coins	18.1%	5	3.4	1.47×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$159 227 coins	7.3%	2	1.7	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3	10.0%	$88.90 127 coins	8.2%	4	3.4	1.18×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$83.30 119 coins	11.5%	5	5.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.8%	$50.96 72.8 coins	5.1%	5	3.7	1.36×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$23.24 33.2 coins	3.2%	3	5.1	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$18.20 26 coins	3.0%	3	6.1	0.49×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$13.55 19.35 coins	0.4%	2	1.0	1.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.