Sparkle
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$84.64
121 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $76.94 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.46%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$83.27119 coins$146209 coins1.76x
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specViggerMcNieger$83.27119 coins$62.5289.32 coins0.75x
SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · blueViggerMcNieger$83.27119 coins$2.233.19 coins0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $84.64 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $84.13 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $83.27 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.5%covert 37.0%high 2.0%classified 19.0%extraordinary 6.0%restricted 3.0%mil spec 15.0%blue 17.5%best hit —