Sparks
A case on CSGORoll (5%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.27
21.81 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $13.88 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.86%
2,230 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,230 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHeffa$15.2721.81 coins$3.044.35 coins0.20x
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedWcale nie Alfred$15.2721.81 coins$10.5615.09 coins0.69x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$15.2721.81 coins$3.044.35 coins0.20x
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedTerroristi$15.2721.81 coins$15.4622.08 coins1.01x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMiltsukkaaaw :3$15.2721.81 coins$3.044.35 coins0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.27 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.17 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $15.24 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.30 | 90.90% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 5.0%classified 62.0%restricted 33.0%best hit —