Spectral

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$50.08

71.54 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $45.52 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.87%

225 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

79.84%±14.25195 openings

30 days

80.87%±13.25225 openings

since tracking started

80.87%±13.25225 openings

38.5%77.3%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	77.33%±38.0	—	odds
7d	195	79.84%±14.3	−1.6σ	odds
30d	225	80.87%±13.3	−1.5σ	odds
All	225	80.87%±13.3	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,059 1,513 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 333	$563 804 coins	3.7%	0	0.7	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$445 636 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$356 508 coins	5.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$291 416 coins	3.2%	1	1.1	0.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 250	$224 320 coins	2.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 125	$115 164 coins	2.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$103 147 coins	2.3%	2	2.3	0.89×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$84.00 120 coins	3.7%	8	4.5	1.78×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$71.40 102 coins	3.9%	8	5.6	1.42×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$70.70 101 coins	10.9%	20	15.8	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$66.79 95.42 coins	7.3%	10	11.3	0.89×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$65.09 92.98 coins	5.7%	8	9.0	0.89×
ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengersother · base	1 in 17	$60.06 85.8 coins	7.9%	11	13.5	0.81×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$48.43 69.18 coins	3.2%	4	6.8	0.59×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$46.98 67.11 coins	4.6%	6	10.1	0.59×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$41.03 58.61 coins	13.5%	37	33.8	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	22.0%	$19.94 28.48 coins	9.6%	49	49.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.2%	$18.43 26.33 coins	10.2%	61	56.8	1.07×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$50.0871.54 coins$41.0358.61 coins0.82x12m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedwSe$50.0871.54 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.37x12m

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$50.0871.54 coins$103147 coins2.05x25m

★ Gut Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covertwSe$50.0871.54 coins$46.9867.11 coins0.94x25m

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$50.0871.54 coins$71.40102 coins1.43x8h

ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengersother · base$50.0871.54 coins$60.0685.8 coins1.20x8h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$50.0871.54 coins$19.9428.48 coins0.40x8h

ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengersother · base$50.0871.54 coins$60.0685.8 coins1.20x8h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covertArcs$50.0871.54 coins$41.0358.61 coins0.82x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$50.08	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$51.29	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.46	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.6%restricted 0.7%extraordinary 4.5%classified 37.2%base 6.0%industrial 22.0%best hit —