Spectrum
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.70
69.57 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $44.27 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.51%
114 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted✪ Gytis ✪$48.7069.57 coins$17.0724.38 coins0.35x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$48.7069.57 coins$164234 coins3.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $48.70 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $48.40 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.91 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%classified 9.0%covert 31.8%extraordinary 0.5%consumer 6.0%restricted 37.0%mil spec 15.7%best hit —