Spiderverse
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.99
69.98 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $44.54 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.65%
157 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$49.5070.71 coins$1,2551,793 coins25.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec🟢Kick: Activ3C0ma$48.9969.98 coins$18.2026 coins0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $48.99 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $49.47 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.50 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 19.4%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 0.2%mil spec 50.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $1,255 (25.36x)