Spiderweb
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.99
74.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $47.26 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.35%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 9.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$51.7973.98 coins$24.6535.22 coins0.48x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$51.9374.19 coins$15.5422.2 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $51.99 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.35 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.93 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.1%industrial 7.0%extraordinary 2.5%classified 43.0%mil spec 22.4%best hit —