Spire
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.02
4.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $2.75 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.47%
19.4K openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.02 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.02 | 90.95% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.77 | 90.94% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.77 | 91.00% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.77 | 90.82% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%mil spec 50.3%rare 0.1%industrial 11.0%exceptional 0.6%violet 5.0%Mythical 3.0%classified 5.0%restricted 5.0%consumer 20.0%best hit —