Spotlight
A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$550.18
786 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $500.16 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
176.01%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$556795 coins$2,7553,935 coins4.95x
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $550 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $551 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $556 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%legendary 8.1%covert 85.7%classified 1.0%epic 5.0%best hit $2,755 (4.95x)