Spring Celebration
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.47
0.67 coins
Advertised RTP
91.18%
EV $0.43 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.99%
73.4K openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
80.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,115 1,593 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20,000 | $78.40 112 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| AUG | Navy Murano (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 1 in 11 | $1.48 2.12 coins | 33.0% | 6,958 | 6980.0 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 200 | $1.46 2.08 coins | 1.7% | 374 | 367.6 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 70.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 50.4% | 51,290 | 51459.1 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.29 0.42 coins | 13.8% | 14,887 | 14702.6 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.18%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.47 | 91.18% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.47 | 90.89% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.45 | 91.38% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.45 | 91.34% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.45 | 91.31% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.45 | 91.17% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.45 | 91.15% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%consumer 9.5%#8847ff 0.5%mil spec 90.0%best hit $78.40 (172.3x)