Squats

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.44

54.91 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $34.94 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.58%

105 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

87 openings · below min

30 days

89.58%±28.03105 openings

since tracking started

89.58%±28.03105 openings

26.0%83.5%141.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	83.46%±56.9	—	odds
7d	87	95.96%±30.9	—	odds
30d	105	89.58%±28.0	−0.1σ	odds
All	105	89.58%±28.0	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 105 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$1,417 2,024 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$1,100 1,572 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 3,333	$1,077 1,539 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,002 1,432 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$418 597 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$386 551 coins	1.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 400	$349 498 coins	2.5%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$307 438 coins	4.4%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 333	$223 319 coins	1.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 33	$127 182 coins	10.9%	8	3.1	2.54×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$87.50 125 coins	12.5%	3	5.3	0.57×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$86.80 124 coins	2.5%	4	1.1	3.81×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$78.40 112 coins	13.5%	6	6.3	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$67.04 95.77 coins	13.4%	6	7.4	0.82×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$52.24 74.63 coins	3.0%	1	2.1	0.48×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$24.78 35.4 coins	5.7%	8	8.4	0.95×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$17.88 25.55 coins	7.7%	17	15.8	1.08×
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$15.51 22.16 coins	6.7%	16	15.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$10.15 14.5 coins	4.4%	15	15.8	0.95×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	21.6%	$7.71 11.02 coins	4.8%	21	22.7	0.93×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.4454.91 coins$15.5122.16 coins0.40x5h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified$38.4454.91 coins$67.0495.77 coins1.74x5h

FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.4454.91 coins$15.5122.16 coins0.40x5h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFuksas$38.4454.91 coins$78.40112 coins2.04x5h

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$38.4454.91 coins$10.1514.5 coins0.26x8h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$38.4454.91 coins$86.80124 coins2.26x8h

★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · rare$38.4454.91 coins$127182 coins3.31x8h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$38.4454.91 coins$86.80124 coins2.26x8h

FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.4454.91 coins$15.5122.16 coins0.40x8h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAvyrian$38.4454.91 coins$17.8825.55 coins0.47x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$38.44	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$39.72	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.82	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%extraordinary 2.0%classified 12.1%restricted 44.6%rare 3.0%industrial 36.6%best hit —