Stabbingham Palace
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.08
4.4 coins
Advertised RTP
91.01%
EV $2.80 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.83%
57.1K openings, odds method
Variance
136.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $1,054 1,505 coins | 18.8% | 32 | 28.6 | 1.12× |
| ★ Karambitknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $891 1,273 coins | 15.9% | 28 | 28.6 | 0.98× |
| ★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $630 900 coins | 11.2% | 27 | 28.6 | 0.94× |
| ★ Talon Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $293 418 coins | 5.2% | 36 | 28.6 | 1.26× |
| ★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $198 283 coins | 3.5% | 20 | 28.6 | 0.70× |
| ★ Bayonetknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $194 277 coins | 3.5% | 28 | 28.6 | 0.98× |
| ★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $172 245 coins | 3.1% | 34 | 28.6 | 1.19× |
| ★ Classic Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $159 227 coins | 2.8% | 32 | 28.6 | 1.12× |
| ★ Flip Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $159 227 coins | 2.8% | 34 | 28.6 | 1.19× |
| ★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $113 161 coins | 2.0% | 30 | 28.6 | 1.05× |
| ★ Huntsman Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $104 148 coins | 1.8% | 34 | 28.6 | 1.19× |
| ★ Falchion Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $88.90 127 coins | 1.6% | 22 | 28.6 | 0.77× |
| ★ Kukri Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 1.3% | 27 | 28.6 | 0.94× |
| ★ Bowie Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 1.3% | 26 | 28.6 | 0.91× |
| ★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $64.46 92.08 coins | 1.1% | 33 | 28.6 | 1.15× |
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $62.44 89.2 coins | 1.1% | 25 | 28.6 | 0.87× |
| ★ Gut Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $54.89 78.42 coins | 1.0% | 41 | 28.6 | 1.43× |
| ★ Paracord Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 0.9% | 23 | 28.6 | 0.80× |
| ★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal | 1 in 2,000 | $46.14 65.92 coins | 0.8% | 25 | 28.6 | 0.87× |
| ★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $37.63 53.76 coins | 0.7% | 22 | 28.6 | 0.77× |
| Sealed Graffiti | FACEIT | London 2018graffiti · high | 1 in 11 | $3.71 5.3 coins | 11.9% | 5,093 | 5142.9 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Miami Stabbyfishsticker · high | 15.0% | $0.48 0.69 coins | 2.6% | 8,395 | 8571.4 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Ocean Sunset Stabbyfishsticker · high | 15.0% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 1.5% | 8,668 | 8571.4 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | After Hours Stabbyfishsticker · high | 15.0% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 1.5% | 8,666 | 8571.4 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Watermelon Stabbyfishsticker · high | 15.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 1.3% | 8,655 | 8571.4 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Knives Outsticker · high | 15.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.6% | 8,517 | 8571.4 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Knife's Edgesticker · high | 15.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 8,570 | 8571.4 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.08 | 91.01% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.09 | 90.97% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.07 | 90.94% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.16 | 90.98% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Immortal 0.1%high 99.0%best hit $1,109 (351.2x)