Stained
A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.65
38.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $24.23 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.84%
4,782 openings, odds method
Variance
11.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,782 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $515 735 coins | 42.5% | 101 | 95.6 | 1.06× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $382 546 coins | 31.6% | 95 | 95.6 | 0.99× |
| ★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $151 216 coins | 12.5% | 89 | 95.6 | 0.93× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $92.40 132 coins | 7.6% | 87 | 95.6 | 0.91× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $68.43 97.76 coins | 5.6% | 106 | 95.6 | 1.11× |
| Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 90.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.2% | 4,304 | 4303.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertNeVerLucK$27.4739.25 coins$535764 coins19.46x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialPOMPOLEOOO$26.6538.07 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $26.65 | 90.90% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.66 | 90.90% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.71 | 90.91% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.47 | 90.91% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%industrial 90.0%best hit $535 (19.46x)