Starstruck

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$14.61

20.87 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $13.28 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.57%

1,648 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.20%±25.42109 openings

7 days

92.16%±6.771,537 openings

30 days

91.57%±6.541,648 openings

since tracking started

91.57%±6.541,648 openings

67.0%93.3%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	109	93.20%±25.4	+0.2σ	odds
7d	1,537	92.16%±6.77	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,648	91.57%±6.54	+0.2σ	odds
All	1,648	91.57%±6.54	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,652 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$273 390 coins	1.0%	1	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$228 326 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$200 286 coins	1.5%	1	1.7	0.61×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 667	$160 229 coins	1.8%	3	2.5	1.21×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 182	$123 176 coins	5.1%	10	9.1	1.10×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 286	$122 174 coins	3.2%	8	5.8	1.38×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 222	$69.05 98.65 coins	2.3%	7	7.4	0.94×
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$38.54 55.06 coins	2.9%	14	16.5	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.5%	$38.19 54.56 coins	33.1%	183	190.0	0.96×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$31.04 44.34 coins	5.8%	45	41.3	1.09×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 156	$27.22 38.88 coins	1.3%	13	10.6	1.23×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$27.10 38.71 coins	5.1%	40	41.3	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$21.55 30.79 coins	8.1%	84	82.6	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$15.79 22.56 coins	9.5%	122	132.2	0.92×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$13.61 19.44 coins	5.1%	94	82.6	1.14×
Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 45	$12.10 17.28 coins	2.0%	41	36.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	40.0%	$2.94 4.2 coins	8.9%	659	660.8	1.00×
M249 \| Humidor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.99 2.85 coins	3.0%	327	330.4	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Humidor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$14.6120.87 coins$1.992.85 coins0.14x4m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$14.6120.87 coins$2.944.2 coins0.20x4m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJarza$14.6120.87 coins$2.944.2 coins0.20x4m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted$14.6120.87 coins$38.1954.56 coins2.61x4m

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$14.6120.87 coins$21.5530.79 coins1.48x4m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$14.6120.87 coins$2.944.2 coins0.20x2h

M249 | Humidor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specElChapo$14.6120.87 coins$1.992.85 coins0.14x2h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$14.6120.87 coins$15.7922.56 coins1.08x2h

AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted$14.6120.87 coins$13.6119.44 coins0.93x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$14.61	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$14.80	90.89%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.81	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%restricted 63.5%extraordinary 0.6%mil spec 25.0%classified 8.0%industrial 2.2%best hit —