StatTrak

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$68.40

97.72 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $62.18 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.81%

221 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

83.42%±26.67189 openings

30 days

80.81%±24.64221 openings

since tracking started

80.81%±24.64221 openings

-0.5%102.0%204.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	64.28%±139.5	—	odds
7d	189	83.42%±26.7	−0.6σ	odds
30d	221	80.81%±24.6	−0.8σ	odds
All	221	80.81%±24.6	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 221 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$2,842 4,060 coins	4.6%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 250	$883 1,262 coins	5.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 200	$477 682 coins	3.8%	2	1.1	1.81×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$336 480 coins	21.6%	5	8.8	0.57×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$169 242 coins	16.3%	14	13.3	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$99.40 142 coins	12.8%	18	17.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$80.50 115 coins	12.9%	18	22.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$48.33 69.05 coins	7.8%	21	22.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.0%	$32.22 46.03 coins	5.7%	26	24.3	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	11.0%	$27.74 39.63 coins	4.9%	25	24.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.0%	$11.75 16.79 coins	2.3%	27	26.5	1.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.0%	$5.82 8.32 coins	1.1%	23	26.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.85 2.64 coins	0.4%	41	33.1	1.24×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare$70.14100 coins$8831,262 coins12.59x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare$70.14100 coins$8831,262 coins12.59x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$68.4097.72 coins$169242 coins2.48x13h

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$68.4097.72 coins$48.3369.05 coins0.71x13h

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertElturados$68.4097.72 coins$48.3369.05 coins0.71x13h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$68.4097.72 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x16h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$68.4097.72 coins$5.828.32 coins0.09x16h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedRussy$68.4097.72 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x16h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$68.4097.72 coins$32.2246.03 coins0.47x16h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$68.4097.72 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkrnl2k$68.4097.72 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$68.4097.72 coins$5.828.32 coins0.09x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$68.40	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$69.42	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$70.14	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%rare 0.4%epic 0.5%covert 38.0%classified 23.0%restricted 38.0%best hit $883 (12.59x)