Stereo

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$56.27

80.39 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $51.16 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.85%

426 openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

82.94%±26.54357 openings

30 days

82.85%±24.31426 openings

since tracking started

82.85%±24.31426 openings

55.5%82.8%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	357	82.94%±26.5	−0.6σ	odds
30d	426	82.85%±24.3	−0.7σ	odds
All	426	82.85%±24.3	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 426 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 370	$2,090 2,985 coins	11.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 233	$902 1,288 coins	7.6%	1	1.8	0.55×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 111	$457 653 coins	8.0%	7	3.8	1.83×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$279 399 coins	16.4%	12	12.8	0.94×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$174 249 coins	10.2%	13	12.8	1.02×
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$149 213 coins	2.9%	5	4.3	1.17×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$135 193 coins	14.5%	23	23.4	0.98×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$93.80 134 coins	7.3%	22	17.0	1.29×
Sticker \| nitr0 (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic	1 in 18	$47.81 68.3 coins	5.1%	15	23.4	0.64×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$43.42 62.03 coins	4.9%	26	24.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$35.40 50.57 coins	4.2%	20	25.6	0.78×
Sticker \| Miami Tier6 (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 17	$15.60 22.28 coins	1.8%	29	25.6	1.13×
MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$7.30 10.43 coins	1.0%	31	30.7	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$6.73 9.61 coins	0.9%	23	27.7	0.83×
Sticker \| Dead Eye (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 15	$6.57 9.39 coins	0.8%	26	27.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$5.32 7.6 coins	0.8%	39	34.1	1.14×
Sticker \| electronic (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · exotic	1 in 13	$5.16 7.37 coins	0.8%	31	33.7	0.92×
Sticker \| Tornado Chaos (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 14	$4.73 6.75 coins	0.6%	31	29.8	1.04×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.10 5.86 coins	0.6%	33	32.0	1.03×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.18 3.12 coins	0.3%	39	34.1	1.14×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3ZaneTrain$57.2381.76 coins$9401,343 coins16.43x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$56.2780.39 coins$2.183.12 coins0.04x1d

Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo)sticker · remarkable$56.2780.39 coins$6.579.39 coins0.12x1d

Sticker | nitr0 (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · exoticaq334$56.2780.39 coins$47.8168.3 coins0.85x1d

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$56.2780.39 coins$4.105.86 coins0.07x1d

R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Factory New)weapon · industrialaq334$56.2780.39 coins$6.739.61 coins0.12x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$56.2780.39 coins$135193 coins2.40x1d

Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo)sticker · remarkable$56.2780.39 coins$6.579.39 coins0.12x2d

Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil)sticker · exotic$56.2780.39 coins$4.736.75 coins0.08x2d

Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil)sticker · exotic$!TheHeadhunter$56.2780.39 coins$4.736.75 coins0.08x2d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$56.2780.39 coins$135193 coins2.40x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$56.27	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$56.50	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$57.23	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.6%extraordinary 3.0%industrial 7.5%classified 17.3%restricted 19.5%exotic 20.4%remarkable 12.5%consumer 7.2%mil spec 8.0%best hit $940 (16.43x)