Sticker Roulette
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$856.95
1,224 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $779.05 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
201.33%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
28.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$8611,230 coins$17.6K25,125 coins20.43x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$8611,230 coins$7,47910,685 coins8.69x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarysasz$8611,230 coins$4,2886,125 coins4.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $857 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $857 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $861 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.8%remarkable 2.7%base 0.5%high 95.0%best hit $22.4K (26.02x)