Sticky Situation
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,162.22
1,660 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $1,056.56 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.36%
9 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 9 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 200 | $6,125 8,750 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 33 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 67 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $2,069 2,955 coins | 19.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary | 10.0% | $1,528 2,183 coins | 14.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $1,058 1,512 coins | 15.0% | 4 | 1.3 | 2.96× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $1,002 1,432 coins | 19.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 20.0% | $280 400 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 20.0% | $160 229 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBeastafiedBeast$1,1621,660 coins$160229 coins0.14x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,1661,665 coins$288412 coins0.25x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,1661,665 coins$160229 coins0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,162 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,166 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 65.5%contraband 3.0%legendary 11.5%classified 20.0%best hit $1,477 (1.27x)