Stinger
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.74
12.49 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $7.95 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.32%
4,783 openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,783 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $166 237 coins | 52.2% | 107 | 119.6 | 0.89× |
| M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 8.7% | 47 | 47.8 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $38.49 54.99 coins | 7.3% | 57 | 71.7 | 0.79× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $11.94 17.05 coins | 1.5% | 52 | 47.8 | 1.09× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $10.71 15.3 coins | 9.4% | 294 | 334.8 | 0.88× |
| Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $8.77 12.53 coins | 11.0% | 459 | 478.3 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $3.44 4.92 coins | 2.6% | 319 | 287.0 | 1.11× |
| UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 23.0% | $2.51 3.59 coins | 7.3% | 1,076 | 1100.1 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,231 | 1195.8 | 1.03× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 23.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,141 | 1100.1 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil specJbeuhlélé$8.7412.49 coins$8.7712.53 coins1.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $8.74 | 90.93% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.78 | 90.93% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.72 | 90.93% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $8.62 | 90.94% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.66 | 90.88% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.60 | 90.88% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%restricted 9.5%mil spec 11.0%industrial 6.0%consumer 71.0%best hit —