Stinky
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 40%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.32
0.46 coins
Advertised RTP
90.17%
EV $0.29 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.17%
111K openings, odds method
Variance
28.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 31
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMugtand gaming$0.340.48 coins$41.0358.61 coins122.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specVGA_hu/N/ csgocases.com$0.320.46 coins$0.230.33 coins0.72x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.17%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.32 | 90.17% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.33 | 90.80% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.33 | 91.06% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.34 | 90.75% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.34 | 91.21% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.34 | 91.59% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%gold 0.0%mil spec 36.9%light blue 0.1%industrial 0.9%Rare 2.0%high 60.0%best hit $75.60 (234.8x)