Stuffed
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$205.89
294 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $187.18 from 61 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.76%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1tashud$208297 coins$1,1831,690 coins5.69x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarytashud$208297 coins$9441,349 coins4.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertGohan$206294 coins$230328 coins1.12x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$206294 coins$188269 coins0.91x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $206 | 90.91% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $205 | 90.91% | 61 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $208 | 90.91% | 61 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%high 2.1%extraordinary 4.5%covert 49.7%restricted 10.4%rare 1.1%classified 29.0%mil spec 3.1%best hit $1,183 (5.69x)