Sunken

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$57.51

82.16 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $52.28 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.89%

410 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27 openings · below min

7 days

87.93%±8.80353 openings

30 days

86.89%±8.17410 openings

since tracking started

86.89%±8.17410 openings

52.5%85.0%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	27	85.06%±31.9	—	odds
7d	353	87.93%±8.80	−0.7σ	odds
30d	410	86.89%±8.17	−1.0σ	odds
All	410	86.89%±8.17	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 410 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$2,219 3,170 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$999 1,427 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$659 942 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$366 523 coins	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$172 246 coins	9.9%	10	12.3	0.81×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$109 155 coins	6.2%	7	12.3	0.57×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$102 146 coins	29.3%	58	61.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$91.70 131 coins	17.5%	46	41.0	1.12×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$51.29 73.27 coins	14.7%	63	61.5	1.02×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$47.36 67.65 coins	4.5%	24	20.5	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	10.0%	$41.41 59.16 coins	7.9%	46	41.0	1.12×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$34.79 49.7 coins	6.7%	36	41.0	0.88×
MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.8%	$5.02 7.17 coins	1.0%	45	44.4	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	18.0%	$1.56 2.23 coins	0.5%	75	73.8	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonRusty Cake$57.5182.16 coins$1.562.23 coins0.03x4m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$57.5182.16 coins$1.562.23 coins0.03x7m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare$57.5182.16 coins$41.4159.16 coins0.72x20m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$57.5182.16 coins$1.562.23 coins0.03x49m

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$57.5182.16 coins$51.2973.27 coins0.89x4h

MP9 | Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil specNecro$57.5182.16 coins$5.027.17 coins0.09x8h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$57.5182.16 coins$51.2973.27 coins0.89x9h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$57.5182.16 coins$51.2973.27 coins0.89x11h

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$57.5182.16 coins$1.562.23 coins0.03x11h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedNecro$57.5182.16 coins$91.70131 coins1.59x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$57.51	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$57.88	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$58.33	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.1%extraordinary 5.1%classified 10.0%rare 10.0%mil spec 10.8%uncommon 18.0%best hit —