Sunshine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$59.58

85.11 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $54.16 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.00%

182 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

101.41%±27.30120 openings

30 days

96.00%±22.20182 openings

since tracking started

96.00%±22.20182 openings

6.5%76.8%147.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	76.77%±69.5	—	odds
7d	120	101.41%±27.3	+0.7σ	odds
30d	182	96.00%±22.2	+0.4σ	odds
All	182	96.00%±22.2	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 182 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 27	$421 602 coins	28.3%	8	6.6	1.21×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$409 584 coins	8.3%	2	2.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$377 539 coins	1.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$181 258 coins	1.7%	0	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 10,000	$155 221 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	12.6%	$91.70 131 coins	21.3%	25	22.9	1.09×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$86.10 123 coins	12.7%	14	14.6	0.96×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$49.23 70.33 coins	7.3%	13	14.6	0.89×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.9%	$43.41 62.02 coins	10.3%	28	23.5	1.19×
PP-Bizon \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$18.45 26.35 coins	3.4%	25	18.2	1.37×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$12.42 17.75 coins	2.3%	15	18.2	0.82×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$11.59 16.56 coins	2.1%	14	18.2	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$1.53 2.18 coins	0.3%	22	20.0	1.10×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$0.58 0.83 coins	0.1%	16	21.8	0.73×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$59.5885.11 coins$43.4162.02 coins0.73x8h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$59.5885.11 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.21x8h

PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer$59.5885.11 coins$18.4526.35 coins0.31x8h

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryMASON92J$59.5885.11 coins$86.10123 coins1.45x8h

PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer$59.5885.11 coins$18.4526.35 coins0.31x9h

MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$59.5885.11 coins$49.2370.33 coins0.83x9h

PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer$59.5885.11 coins$18.4526.35 coins0.31x9h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$59.5885.11 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.21x9h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedcequ$59.5885.11 coins$91.70131 coins1.54x9h

P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$59.5885.11 coins$43.4162.02 coins0.73x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$59.58	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$59.58	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$59.96	90.90%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$60.99	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 11.6%restricted 14.0%covert 0.5%rare 0.0%mil spec 31.0%classified 22.9%consumer 10.0%industrial 10.0%best hit —