Supercharged

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$92.69

132 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $84.27 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.70%

490 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

57.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27 openings · below min

7 days

95.01%±20.04359 openings

30 days

91.70%±17.14490 openings

since tracking started

91.70%±17.14490 openings

-0.5%63.3%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	27	52.71%±73.6	—	odds
7d	359	95.01%±20.0	+0.4σ	odds
30d	490	91.70%±17.1	+0.1σ	odds
All	490	91.70%±17.1	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 490 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 333,333	$53.5K 76,380 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 250,000	$24.5K 35,000 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$11.6K 16,550 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 16,667	$6,888 9,840 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$2,513 3,590 coins	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 12,500	$2,499 3,570 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$2,069 2,955 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 5,000	$1,552 2,217 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$1,331 1,901 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,222	$804 1,148 coins	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 125	$762 1,088 coins	7.2%	3	3.9	0.77×
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 556	$627 896 coins	1.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 4,000	$533 762 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 12	$363 518 coins	36.6%	37	41.7	0.89×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$270 386 coins	1.3%	3	2.0	1.53×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$235 336 coins	8.5%	22	15.0	1.47×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$190 271 coins	3.2%	1	6.9	0.15×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$144 205 coins	8.5%	28	24.5	1.14×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.5%	$94.50 135 coins	14.0%	62	61.3	1.01×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	11.0%	$93.10 133 coins	12.2%	52	53.9	0.96×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$53.31 76.15 coins	4.4%	33	34.3	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	120	122.5	0.98×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	127	122.5	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyL3MON™ csgoroll.com$94.44135 coins$2,5343,620 coins26.83x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertM1koGooD$94.44135 coins$8491,213 coins8.99x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1L3MON™ csgoroll.com$94.44135 coins$7691,099 coins8.15x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$94.44135 coins$7691,099 coins8.15x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$94.44135 coins$7691,099 coins8.15x8d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$92.69132 coins$7621,088 coins8.22x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$92.69132 coins$363518 coins3.91x8h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$92.69132 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer560 HP$92.69132 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$92.69132 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$92.69132 coins$93.10133 coins1.00x10h

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$92.69132 coins$53.3176.15 coins0.58x10h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$92.69132 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10h

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$92.69132 coins$53.3176.15 coins0.58x10h

AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$92.69132 coins$94.50135 coins1.02x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$92.69	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$92.75	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$94.44	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 15.4%epic 0.0%extraordinary 22.1%classified 12.5%consumer 50.0%best hit $2,534 (26.83x)