Supernova
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.25
41.79 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $26.59 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.84%
2,022 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,026 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$29.2541.79 coins$5.297.56 coins0.18x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$29.2541.79 coins$65.4693.51 coins2.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $29.25 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.24 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.44 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $29.48 | 90.92% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $29.55 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.87 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.0%classified 59.0%pink 15.0%best hit —